New Years Resolutions

New Year’s resolutions are… extremely overrated. I have never felt the need to make resolutions when the calendar turns over, though I have certainly done so in the past. As I get older, I think about them less and less. Why should I wait for an arbitrary date on the calendar to try and better myself. That should be a goal for me each and every day. 

The fitness company Equinox appears to agree with this sentiment completely. Their “We Don’t Speak January” campaign which just came out online states that the company will not be accepting new membership requests for the next few weeks. Part of the company’s statement reads “You are not a New Years Resolution. Your life does not begin at the beginning of the calendar year” and goes on to talk about not living life on a half-fulfilled basis. 

The campaign has garnered some outrage online but it’s their choice to express this sentiment and ultimately the message appears to be aligned with their brand. There is nothing inherently wrong with making resolutions to better oneself, but to each their own. 

A Rare Cosmic Occurrence

About a week ago, my mom texted our whole family’s group text “I hope everyone is excited to wake up early tomorrow, I sure am”. Confused, I responded asking her what was going on. She wrote back “to see a very rare cosmic occurrence of course - the planetary alignment!” I then looked up the information about it and must say I was pretty surprised that it was even a thing, but in fact it is, and it happened this year and won’t happen again until 2040. 

The planetary alignment features 5 planets - Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn - in near a near perfect line across the early morning sky. This is occurring because the orbits of these planets has come together in close unison along the plane of the Solar System, which is rare given the distance apart and great difference in orbiting time that all of the planets have. The best viewing dates were between June 24th and June 26th, so unfortunately the most ideal time has now passed. But the planets are still visible in close proximity to one another. 

The best viewing time to see this phenomenon was just before sunrise. Chicago time, that would have been at around 5am so I did not want to get up at the crack of dawn to see it. I’m good with looking at pictures on the internet afterwards! In the Northern Hemisphere, the viewing angle was just to the Southeast, while in the Southern Hemisphere it was slightly to the Northeast. Well, I guess see you again in 2040 for the next one!

What should the US do about Russia?

Last week, Russia turned their passive placement of troops along the Ukraine border into active aggression and officially invaded the Ukraine. The invasion into independent and democratic Ukraine, ordered by President Vladimir Putin, was totally unexpected and unprovoked, and has been almost universally condemned by the Western world (even neutral Switzerland has taken a stance!). Here in the US it begs the question - what should we do about this conflict, if anything? If it does warrant a response, what does this look like? 

A lot of factors and context must be considered when making this decision, and often times there is no easy answer when it comes to geopolitical conflicts and trade-offs, particularly when it comes to war. 

First is the reaction by the US. Russia is a competing world power to the United States, so clearly President Biden's reaction was going to be condemnation of Russia's unprovoked actions towards an independent neighbor. European and NATO nations were even quicker than the US to this action, essentially universally condemning Russia as well. It is surprising, and I believe equally surprising to 
Putin, the coherent response from the West as to his actions.

Second, the response. The most important consideration here is what is going on inside the mind of Putin and what is motivating him. According to several former military or CIA directors that have spoken publicly, the invasion of Ukraine was the doing of an unhinged and delusional dictator Putin - sources close to him have reported him becoming more isolated, volatile, and dispondent over the last several years. This is a man who recently wrote a manifesto about Ukraine being culturally and rightfully part of the old Soviet Union and that it should be annexed. His declaration of nuclear escalation upon any nation's intervention is scary. also, and points to his unhinged state - most regimes know that mutually assured destruction is bad for everyone, but who knows what someone like Putin backed into a corner could possibly do.

The US, and Western Europe's, response has been large scale condemnation and to impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia. At this point, the international banking system has cut off Russian banks from the rest of the world, and Russian financial assets are largely frozen. While this will have some effect on the rest of the world, it is crippling to Russia and its citizens. NATO nations in Europe have helped Ukraine by sending weapons and supplies, and Ukraine's membership into the European Union is being expedited. 

I personally believe this is the correct level of response from the West. The US in particular has no reason at this point to put boots on the ground and enter into a war 7,000 miles away. This would only "poke the bear" and who knows what sort of attack, even the nuclear kind, Putin would resort to. Make the economic sanctions as harsh as possible and see what happens. European nations have no particular use to militarily intervene at this point either, especially during a time when the Ukranian military and citizens are valiently defending their country and holding up against the Russian onslaught.

Inflation is on the rise in the US

Amid the economic and health crsiis that was (and is) the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government and Federal Reserve decided it was the right move to print trillions of dollars. This money was intended to be used for relief, for businesses to obtain grants or low interest loans to keep the doors open and in the form of stimulus checks directly to individuals. There were many supporters and critics about this level of money printing, but chief among them on the critical side was the threat of inflation. Well, flash forward to today with the economic recovery and strong employment that the US has, and inflation is here.

As of October 13, US inflation rates stood at 5.4%, a 13 year high. Housing, rent prices, and construction materials are still on the rise after slightly plateauing off, and energy costs (electricity and gas) have soared by 25% in the last year. But the most major of macro trends is occurring in consumer goods, which includes food and household goods. There was a huge downward supply shock in the middle of 2020 that led to both falling prices and decreased production. However, the economy and demand have recovered so quickly that there is now a supply shock as production can not keep up. The result is a price spike in most categories of goods.

No matter how one felt about the quantitative easing by the government at the height of the pandemic, no one would argue that high inflation is good for anyone, except for the nominal value of revenues and profits for businesses. Inflation hurts the value of the dollar for all, as savings accounts deteriorate in real value. A large percentage of households rely on only savings accounts or live paycheck to paycheck, so a high inflation disproportionately hurts these households. High inflation is not a good way to close the income inequality gap, in fact it does the opposite. Low levels of inflation can be healthy for an economy as it grows, but not levels like we are seeing now - this high inflation could threaten to cripple the US economy. 

The Fall of Afghanistan

It is mid-August here in the US, and the major news of the week has been the fall of the Afghanistan government to the hands of the Taliban, the major triggering event of which was the US deciding to withdraw the remaining troops in early August. After the US withdrawl, it took only 11 days for the Taliban to take control of the country by entering the government buildings in Kabul. First, they took over less populated and mountainous regions in the rural parts of the country, and then they set about taking over major population centers like Kandahar, before being able to set its eyes on the ultimate prize, the capital city of Kabul.

How the heck did this happen so quickly? Mostly and most directly, as most news source agree, it is because the American trained and supported Afghan army stopped getting paid. When the Americans left, they simply put down their weapons and walked away from the job; they were not going to stick around and fight the Taliban which was already powerful and accepted in most parts of the country. The Afghan soldiers had a choice to either join them or fight to the death against them. And to what end? There was none. Clearly, there was never a stable government that America and its allies actually set up. As it turns out, anyone in government power was actually just a puppet regime. The Taliban still remained in power in the country. 

The US intelligence community saw this as a potential option, just not so quickly. The US Embassy had to be evacuated (as apparently they didn't have the foresight to do that before withdrawing US troops) and hundreds of Western journalists were stranded there for days in a life threatening situation. It was a miscalculation of epic proportion, and it took days to rescue everyone safely (and luckily they were able to).

While shocking news when the whole situation unfolded, it is easy to see how the instability was a foregone conclusion. The region never wanted America or any Western nation to meddle in their affairs, and we were just wasting time and money occupying these lands.We should have gotten out a long time ago as we were clearly serving no purpose. Trillions of dollars of wasted taxpayer dollars and 20 years later, here we are.

Three Prominent College Football Transfers for 2019

As a strategy consultant for the Chicago, Illinois-based insurance brokerage Aon, Alex Mosnick works with the management and underwriting teams of global insurance companies to develop initiatives related to product development and entering new insurance markets. Beyond his professional pursuits, Alex Mosnick is an avid fan of college football. 

Seeking new opportunities, several players have transfered colleges in the off-season. Listed below are three prominent quarterbacks who will be playing with a new team when the 2019 season commences.

1. Jalen Hurts. After three seasons with Alabama, Hurts is transferring to the University of Oklahoma for his senior campaign. In doing so, he follows Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, both of whom transferred to Oklahoma and went on to win the Heisman Trophy. Through three seasons with Alabama, Hurts accumulated 5,626 passing yards, 1,976 rushing yards, and 71 combined touchdowns.

2. Kelly Bryant. In 2017, Bryant led the Clemson Tigers to a win-loss record of 12-2, but lost his starting job to freshman Trevor Lawrence this past season. He'll play for the University of Missouri in 2019.

3. Brandon Wimbush. Limited to only three games with Notre Dame this past season, Wimbush has opted to play his senior season with the University of Central Florida. Through 20 games with Notre Dame, the 6-foot-2 quarterback registered 2,606 passing yards, 1,156 rushing yards, and 36 combined touchdowns.