Wednesday, March 2, 2022

What should the US do about Russia?

Last week, Russia turned their passive placement of troops along the Ukraine border into active aggression and officially invaded the Ukraine. The invasion into independent and democratic Ukraine, ordered by President Vladimir Putin, was totally unexpected and unprovoked, and has been almost universally condemned by the Western world (even neutral Switzerland has taken a stance!). Here in the US it begs the question - what should we do about this conflict, if anything? If it does warrant a response, what does this look like? 

A lot of factors and context must be considered when making this decision, and often times there is no easy answer when it comes to geopolitical conflicts and trade-offs, particularly when it comes to war. 

First is the reaction by the US. Russia is a competing world power to the United States, so clearly President Biden's reaction was going to be condemnation of Russia's unprovoked actions towards an independent neighbor. European and NATO nations were even quicker than the US to this action, essentially universally condemning Russia as well. It is surprising, and I believe equally surprising to 
Putin, the coherent response from the West as to his actions.

Second, the response. The most important consideration here is what is going on inside the mind of Putin and what is motivating him. According to several former military or CIA directors that have spoken publicly, the invasion of Ukraine was the doing of an unhinged and delusional dictator Putin - sources close to him have reported him becoming more isolated, volatile, and dispondent over the last several years. This is a man who recently wrote a manifesto about Ukraine being culturally and rightfully part of the old Soviet Union and that it should be annexed. His declaration of nuclear escalation upon any nation's intervention is scary. also, and points to his unhinged state - most regimes know that mutually assured destruction is bad for everyone, but who knows what someone like Putin backed into a corner could possibly do.

The US, and Western Europe's, response has been large scale condemnation and to impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia. At this point, the international banking system has cut off Russian banks from the rest of the world, and Russian financial assets are largely frozen. While this will have some effect on the rest of the world, it is crippling to Russia and its citizens. NATO nations in Europe have helped Ukraine by sending weapons and supplies, and Ukraine's membership into the European Union is being expedited. 

I personally believe this is the correct level of response from the West. The US in particular has no reason at this point to put boots on the ground and enter into a war 7,000 miles away. This would only "poke the bear" and who knows what sort of attack, even the nuclear kind, Putin would resort to. Make the economic sanctions as harsh as possible and see what happens. European nations have no particular use to militarily intervene at this point either, especially during a time when the Ukranian military and citizens are valiently defending their country and holding up against the Russian onslaught.